Tuesday, September 2, 2014

GDP,US,DEU: ZH, growth by encouraging furriners to fight


Since sanctions began the plunge in Euro-Area PMIs has been commensurate with the rise in Russia's (oh and according to survey-data, US is as good as it has ever been)...

Moelis: Lex v ZH: "eat what you kill" v "funniest line of the day"


[Bear]’s “eat-what-you-kill” culture is arguably closer in nature to the entrepreneurial cultures of Greenhill, Moelis and Evercore than to the bureaucracies at Wall Street’s biggest banks. If Alan Schwartz, say, were to start a boutique company, determined compatriots looking to be paid more directly for their work would surely follow.


"I have no need for a political figurehead," Mr. Moelis said. "What I want is a partner."

That surely has to be tied for one of the funniest lines of the day.

VIX,DX,TNX: CFS Econ Head, rise "6-12 months. volatility. DX. US bond yields"


"In the next six to 12 months, this will change quite dramatically. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has already raised interest rates four times, and I expect the Bank of England will push interest rates higher in the next six months.
"The US Federal Reserve will put rates up in June, and the Reserve Bank of Australia will put rates up around the same time. And the Reserve Bank of Canada will put rates up shortly after that.
"So that means that all the 'dollar-block' countries will see increases in interest rates and policy normalisation. But at the other end of the spectrum, the European Central Bank will amp up its monetary stimulus, as will the Bank of Japan."
The divergence in monetary policy between the world's major central banks will have major implications for global markets.
"Global volatility risks will rise substantially", he predicts. "The US dollar will strengthen quite significantly, particularly against the euro and the yen...

"US bond yields are too low. Bond yields will rise and as short-term rates increase, the yield curve (which measures the gap between short-term and long-term rates) will flatten."...

Halmarick believes there's some potential for the US share market, which is already trading at a record high, to move higher in coming months.
"Usually the US equity market peaks about four months before the first interest rate hike. Now the first rate hike is likely to be mid-2015, which suggests that the market will peak in early 2015.
"That suggests that we might have three to four months – or maybe even as long as six months – of performance ahead of us. And although the S&P500 is already trading at record highs, it's possible it could continue to move higher."

Monday, September 1, 2014

TV Wardrobe Pro: "female characters. stronger & more prominent. wardrobe departments followed suit"

by way contrast, gen z tech "leaders" show skivvies....   


Claire Underwood (Robin Wright) on “House of Cards”
As the wife of Frank Underwood, D.C.’s smartest and most sinister politico, Claire needs to project purity and conservatism with just a touch of sex appeal. This means a lot of Dior skirt suits and Prada dresses in neutral tones.
Stylist Anita Patrickson (who styles Emma Watson and Nina Dobrev) says: “She screams confident professional, but she’s slick and sharp, in beautifully cut pieces and elegant fabrics. These looks are timeless classics.”

Olivia Pope (Kerry Washington) on “Scandal”

Stylist Anita Patrickson says: “She mixes luxurious glamour with a ‘no mess’ attitude and keeps it classy and sophisticated from head to toe.”

Nessa Stein (Maggie Gyllenhaal) on “The Honorable Woman”

Stylist Patrickson says: “The chicness feels reminiscent of icons from the past. Every garment is a sexy and elegant version of the basic staple we all own.”

Alicia Florrick (Julianna Margulies) on “The Good Wife”
Stylist Patrickson says: “Minimal accessories, blocks of neutrals and deep, strong colors. Each look is impeccably tailored with a bold silhouette.”

PR ROI: HBS, bluffing, spoofing, &c

cuz economists are all about spreading wisdom for free..

Vaporware, Suddenware, and Trueware: New Product Preannouncements Under Market Uncertainty

A firm may want to preannounce its plans to develop a new product in order to stimulate future demand. But given that such communications can affect rivals' incentives to develop the same new product, a firm may decide to preannounce untruthfully in order to deter competitors. We examine an incumbent's preannouncement strategy when there is uncertainty regarding the commercial viability of a new product opportunity and a threat of rival entry. Each firm has a private assessment of the market potential for the new product. Two competitive incentives arise for the incumbent in terms of discouraging rival entry: it can use preemptive communication or it can remain silent and instill a pessimistic market potential outlook. We find that an incumbent prefers to follow a vaporware strategy — i.e., declares plans to pursue a new product opportunity even when it may have no development intentions — when its market forecasting capabilities are weak and the demand-side benefits from preannouncing are small. By contrast, when the incumbent has strong market forecasting capabilities and the demand-side benefits are small, the incumbent adopts a suddenware strategy — i.e., remains silent about its new product plans even when it actually plans to develop the new product. Finally, when its market forecasting capabilities are strong and the demand-side benefits are large, the incumbent prefers to engage in a trueware strategy — i.e., truthfully preannounces development plans. We show that an interplay between competition-related and demand-related considerations is what allows trueware to emerge as an equilibrium in the absence of any ex post cost to engaging in vaporware. In an extension, we let the incumbent's actual development plans leak out and allow the entrant to wait and learn those plans prior to setting a research and development level. We identify conditions for the entrant to postpone development despite the risk of being late to market, as well as conditions for the entrant to commence development immediately despite not knowing the incumbent's plans based on the observed preannouncement strategy.

Advertising ROI: UA, "sex in advertising. made companies a lot of money"

not that execs can make money showing their undies ...   Would Dubya have done better topless flaunting paunch..


“The book goes beyond discussion of advertising campaigns to touch on the important issues surrounding sex in advertising,” Reichert said. “One question raised throughout the book is, ‘Does sex sell?’ It’s clear not all ads that utilize busty blondes and innuendo are successful, but the book contains a wealth of examples of successful campaigns featuring scantily clad models in romantic escapades. Some of the ads fell flat, but many more resonated with the intended consumers and ultimately made their companies a lot of money.”